Digital Cartel Watchlist – Week of 16 November 2025

You wanted more than just headlines – you wanted the gritty details of how today’s tech giants are tightening the screws. This first weekly watchlist doesn’t just report the news; it unpacks what each vendor is doing and why it matters to the people who actually have to run these systems.

Broadcom / VMware – From Ownership to Endless Rent

Broadcom’s takeover of VMware has produced a licensing regime that would make a loan shark blush.

• End of Perpetual Licences. VMware no longer sells one‑time licences. Every product is subscription‑only . That means if you don’t pay, the updates (and possibly access) stop. The once‑flexible catalogue of stand‑alone vSphere, vSAN and NSX has been collapsed into mega‑bundles like VMware Cloud Foundation (VCF) and vSphere Foundation . Smaller customers are especially squeezed: even an eight‑core server must be licensed as if it has 72 cores . Bundles include features many organisations don’t want, but can’t avoid.
• Per‑Core Metrics With Rounding Up. Licences now come in 32‑core packs. Each CPU is counted as at least 16 cores and the smallest order is 72 cores . A server with 48 cores requires two 32‑core packs (64 cores), leaving 16 cores that you paid for but can’t use . The pricing model is designed to overshoot your actual needs, ensuring Broadcom always gets a little extra.
• Stricter Compliance & Telemetry. Subscriptions enforce usage limits via software checks. Broadcom enables telemetry (“phone home”) by default . If you mix old perpetual licences with new subscriptions, it can trigger audits. Miss a renewal? There’s a 20 % penalty . The message is clear: stay current or pay dearly.
• Higher Lifetime Costs & No Escape. Broadcom admits that moving from perpetual to subscription increases total cost of ownership; if you stop paying, you lose the right to use the software . And because the mandatory terms are three years , switching vendors isn’t a weekend project. It’s a years‑long migration slog.

Impact: Customers lose the option of owning their licences outright. Budgets shift from capital expense (buy once) to operating expense (pay forever). Smaller shops and remote offices bear disproportionate cost because of the 72‑core minimum. And telemetry‑driven audits reduce autonomy.

Microsoft – “Simplifying” Pricing by Raising It

Microsoft’s latest licensing overhaul is sold as simplification, but most customers will see it for what it is: a price hike wrapped in neutral language.

• Elimination of Volume Discounts. Effective 1 November 2025, Microsoft is retiring pricing tiers B, C and D for online services . All Enterprise Agreement (EA) customers pay Level A list prices. That translates to roughly 6 % more for Level B customers, 9 % more for Level C, and up to 12 % more for Level D . A 25,000‑user organisation could see an additional $2.5 million per year .
• Pushing Mid‑Market Out of EA. Organisations with fewer than 2,400 users are being pushed off the EA entirely . Microsoft wants them on Cloud Solution Provider (CSP) programmes, which are managed by third‑party partners . These programmes have different compliance rules , making it easier for Microsoft to enforce terms and audit usage through the partner channel.
• Loss of Bargaining Power. The EA historically let large customers negotiate bespoke discounts and lock in pricing for three years. With Level A pricing and CSP mandates, the leverage disappears. Adding new services after November automatically triggers the higher prices .

Impact: Organisations face immediate budget spikes at renewal. Mid‑sized companies must switch to CSP contracts with different terms and likely higher audit risk. It’s a one‑two punch: pay more, then lose the direct relationship that allowed any semblance of customisation.

Oracle – Java’s New Tax

Oracle’s 2023 change to Java licensing is simple on the surface and insidious in practice.

• Universal Subscription = Licence Everyone. Oracle’s only option now is the Java SE Universal Subscription, which charges you per employee . Every full‑time, part‑time, temporary worker and contractor counts . If you have 100 Java users but 5,000 employees, you pay for 5,000. List price starts at about $15 per employee per month .
• Cost Explosion. Palisade Compliance notes that the switch can increase costs two‑ to ten‑fold . A 500‑employee company that used to spend a few thousand dollars on Java now faces roughly $90 k per year . Existing customers renewing older licensing models are being pressured to convert, often at higher rates.
• Audit Threats. Gartner predicts one in five organisations using Java will be audited by Oracle by 2026 . Under‑licensing just one contractor could result in hefty back fees. Since the metric is employee headcount, the margin for error is slim.

Impact: Companies must budget for licensing everyone, regardless of actual usage. Alternatives like OpenJDK become more attractive, but migrations take time. Oracle’s broad audit net increases legal and financial risks, particularly for firms with large contractor populations.

IBM – The Subscription March of IBM i

IBM is systematically retiring perpetual licensing for its mid‑range IBM i platform.

• Withdrawal of Non‑Expiring Licences. IBM announced that as of 1 January 2026, P20 and P30 non‑expiring licences will no longer be available . New Power11 systems must be licensed via subscription; only customers migrating from E1080 to E1180 can keep perpetual rights .
• Rising Prices & Transfer Fees. The transfer fee for IBM i licences jumped to US$8,954 effective 1 July 2025 . Lansa’s analysis warns of 6 % increases on per‑core pricing and 10 % annual rises in software maintenance .
• Bundled Editions Replace A La Carte. IBM introduced P20 Standard and P30 Enterprise subscription bundles . Starting 1 January 2026, if you buy a new Power10/Power11 server at those tiers, your choices are: subscription standalone or subscription bundle . There is no option to buy a perpetual licence for those tiers anymore.

Impact: Long‑time IBM i customers lose the option to own their software outright. Budgets shift to recurring fees, and the steep transfer cost discourages moving licences between machines. Smaller organisations must accept bundles that may include more capabilities than they need.

SAP – Cloud Carrot, Hidden Sticks

SAP is reshaping its ERP offerings in ways that lock customers deeper into subscriptions.

• Retirement of RISE Tiers. In mid‑2025, SAP retired RISE “Base” and “Premium” tiers and introduced a new SAP Cloud ERP Private framework. Previously bundled items like SAP Joule AI units and SAP Datasphere now require separate licences , increasing the total cost.
• End of Mainstream Support. SAP’s Business Suite 7 hits end of mainstream support in 2027, with extended support costing extra until 2030 . Customers must migrate to S/4HANA via RISE or Cloud ERP, or face escalating support fees and potential compliance issues.
• Subscription Lock‑In. Choosing SAP’s cloud subscription means paying a recurring fee, bundled with hosting. SAP controls upgrade schedules ; if you stop paying, you lose access. It’s convenient up front and constricting long term.
• Digital Access & FUE Mechanics. SAP introduced Digital Access – instead of licensing indirect users, you license by the number of documents (sales orders, invoices, etc.) created by external systems . This model can spike costs as transaction volumes grow. For S/4HANA Cloud, users are licensed via a pool of Full Usage Equivalents (FUEs) . Heavy users consume more of the pool; misclassify them and you blow your allotment . Worse, FUE commitments rarely allow reductions mid‑contract.

Impact: Customers lose flexibility to stay on older versions; support deadlines force migrations. Subscription bundles may cost more over time than on‑premise licences. Digital Access and FUE metrics shift the licensing risk from headcount to transaction volumes and user behaviour, making forecasting and compliance more complex.

Salesforce – One Contract to Rule Them All

Salesforce continues its strategy of bundling and price hikes.

• Unified Contracts. Salesforce is pitching unified agreements that combine its CRM with Slack, Tableau and MuleSoft. Redress Compliance warns that once you sign a unified contract, you lose renegotiation power and expose your organisation to audit risk across all bundled products . Dropping an unused product becomes difficult, if not impossible.
• Recurring Price Increases & AI Add‑Ons. In June 2025, Salesforce announced that Enterprise and Unlimited editions across its core clouds would see 6 % list price increases effective 1 August 2025 . It’s the second hike in two years, signalling a new cadence of annual rises . Meanwhile, the new Agentforce AI add‑ons cost between $125 and $550 per user per month . The cost is justified by promises of generative AI, but real‑world value remains unproven.

Impact: Unified contracts tie organisations into broad product suites and complicate exits. Annual price hikes and pricey AI add‑ons strain budgets. The “safety net” of adding Slack or MuleSoft may actually become a trap that makes negotiating any component nearly impossible.

A Closing Thought: A Convergence Crisis

Across the board, major vendors are turning the screws. Subscription‑only licences replace ownership, volume discounts vanish, and arcane metrics (cores, employee counts, document units) show up like weeds. If you happen to rely on VMware, Microsoft, Oracle, SAP and Salesforce all at once, the budget pain compounds. Block 64 notes that simultaneous price hikes of 200‑500 % could add $500K to $1.5 M in annual spend for a mid‑sized business . That’s not “digital transformation”; it’s extortion by another name.

This convergence crisis cuts to the heart of digital sovereignty. Perpetual licences once gave you the right to run software on your terms. Subscriptions give you the right to keep paying. When support windows shrink and telemetry pings home, you’re no longer a customer—you’re a tenant with a landlord who can raise the rent at will.

There is, however, one European lever worth remembering. In 2012, the EU’s top court ruled that organisations can resell “used” software licences, whether purchased on DVD or via download . The principle of exhaustion means software vendors lose control over distribution after the first sale . This creates a legal secondary market that can slash costs and, more importantly, preserve your right to own what you buy. It’s imperfect—only perpetual licences qualify and you must delete your copy when you sell —but it’s a vital counterweight to the subscription tide.

So here’s my plea: don’t sleepwalk onto the upgrade treadmill. Scrutinise contracts, question “as‑a‑service” assumptions, and explore alternatives—whether that’s open source, used licences or renegotiated terms. Digital sovereignty isn’t a romantic slogan; it’s a practical shield. Without it, you’ll keep paying whatever the cartel demands, long after the ink has dried.